not me ... not now...

Well, today was my last day of work here in Germany. I was given a travel book of Braunschweig and a bottle of something (I believe it’s Jägermeiſter although I haven’t opened it yet to check…) as parting gifts. The guys that I worked with over here were your typical fine German citizens and I really will miss the sometimes awkward (purely in the social sense – they are all business professionals) interactions. However, that’s life – you need to continue on the quest. It’s time for me to get back to my home and begin work on the next phase of my life. I said my farewells to the crew here in Germany however I do not believe I will ever truly forget them. I wish nothing but the best for each and every one of them in the future.

As for me, I’m actually in a rather interesting (if not slightly troublesome) situation. The work here is done (which, of course, means the income is done as well), I’m signed up to be heading back to the states via trans-Atlantic steel freighter sometime early next month followed by a rather extended visit with friends and family back in my hometown … but then what? You see, that’s the question I’ve been wrestling with… Exactly what crazy and mixed-up scheme am I going to partake in next…?

I’ve always believed that the only person truly responsible for anybody’s choices in life is that person. For me – since I have no immediate family to support – this belief seems to ring absolutely true. I completely understand that any bad decisions I may make could have negative impacts on other’s lives – my friends and family who have always been there when I truly needed them – however it has become very clear to me during this latest venture down the “path less traveled” that mine is, by and large, a lone journey.

Try not to read this the wrong way … I’m not complaining. What is is. My current life is just a culmination of all previous decisions made and, to be honest with you, I think I’m doing pretty well. I’ve actually been able to earn enough money to pay off most of my debt (there will always be the mortgage … that one’s kind of tough…) which basically can be looked at as a financial reset. I now get the often desired opportunity to start over fresh and see if I’ve learned anything from the sometimes ill-advised choices previously made when originally acquiring said debt. But here’s the rub, I feel that I’ve completely burned out in my chosen profession. The thought of needing to – once again – go through the rigors of finding a new job, jumping through the hoops required to secure any open position found and devoting a large portion of my life to the execution of said job is enough to bring tears to my eyes. It’s already making sleep a bit more difficult … nothing like lying awake in bed trying to figure a way out of this – especially when the way can’t be found…

I actually had a technical phone interview with a company in Fort Collins last night. Put aside the fact that it was on my cheap cell phone and the signal strength was almost constantly fluctuating (making even basic communication challenging), I realized something a bit shocking – I didn’t want the job. Yeah, it is true that I most definitely need a job; but I’m becoming more and more of the opinion that what really needs to be done in order to have a fruitful life is to somehow get your desires in line with your needs. I have very little desire to become another overworked and underappreciated line item for yet another corporation. There’s got to be a better way…

I guess the real trick in life is figuring out how to make your desires pay off. I think that all (well, at least most) of the successful people in this world have done just that – they’ve been able to prosper on terms that they, themselves, came up with. Their path to success very well may have included periods where effort was spent on sustaining the lifestyles of others that were further along in the game; however their own success was reached by never forgetting the reasoning behind these periods – to obtain the resources required to live their lives on their own terms. Perhaps their own terms are to stay in that 9 to 5 job and sacrifice a portion of their own life to support loved ones – there’s nothing wrong with that, in fact I believe that a decision such as this very noble and anyone choosing to live this way is a success. It just happens not to be my desire – not me … not now…

bis später,

Coriolis

Excretory Openings

You can actually learn quite a bit when you decide to live in a foreign country. It’s interesting to see how different cultures live; and the myriad of hassles that will inevitably need to be dealt with are great ways to discover things about yourself that may actually surprise you. This completely unexpected trip to Germany that I have been on for the last eight months has taught me quite a bit about myself and has actually changed me in many ways – most notably in the way I look at people, in general (myself included).

No matter where you go, there seems to be two general classes of people – people that are genuinely concerned about the well-being of others and people that are only concerned about their own; or, nice people and assholes. I realize that this is a very broad generalization; however, I honestly believe that it is true. The thing is that the assholes are almost always hiding behind the façade of a nice person; however, without fail, their true colors will slowly (sometimes rather quickly) erode that façade and the nice person that you thought you were dealing with will be replaced by just another asshole.

The thing about this that I still don’t understand is why somebody would chose to be an asshole (and it is a choice). Is it ignorance? We all want the best for ourselves – wanting anything less would be silly – but why can’t the assholes out there (and there are many) understand that the best thing they can do for themselves (and the world) would be to stop being assholes? No, the sad fact of the matter is that, once someone decides that he is the only important being on this planet, he has made an almost irreversible decision to be an asshole for the rest of his life.

Interestingly enough, the urge to become an asshole is usually taught at a young age. Parents, as well as educators, are always teaching that a child needs to learn how to fend for himself. I believe that this is true – one must learn how to take care of one’s self – although the technique of getting the child to think of themselves as “the most important person in the world” needs to be stopped. All it’s accomplished is increasing the population of assholes. Besides, it’s an absolute fabrication. If you honestly believe that you are the most important person in this world then you really need to reassess that belief by analyzing yourself from someone else’s point of view – is it possible that you’re just an asshole? I’d wager that it is…

The truly frightening aspect about this overabundance of assholes is clearly seen when they group together. As the saying goes, “Birds of a feather flock together,” and when this “feather” is an artificial sense of superiority, bad things are sure to happen. A few groups come to mind right away (the Nazis, the Ku Klux Klan and the Bush administration to name a few) and I doubt anyone can show any good that’s come from these groups…

It’s obvious that assholes have always existed – if you’ve ever wondered what the true reason for the foundation of the plethora of religions was, I’d argue that it was the existence of these assholes. I mean religions have been around forever (well, at least since man decided to create them) and I honestly believe that the purpose behind these religions was to basically reign in these assholes a bit. If you have a bunch of people ignorant enough to think that the world revolves around them, trick these people into behaving better by creating some fictitious being that will punish them for their selfish behaviors. You already know they’re ignorant, so getting them to believe the fairy tale wouldn’t be too difficult. (Of course any of you that have read my Most Intelligent Creatures? and Who’s Your Daddy? posts are already aware that I think the time for religions is over; however I do believe that they once were very much needed…)

So, where exactly am I going with this? I’m not really sure… I’ll tell you what inspired this post though: Not a day goes by when I don’t receive at least one email designed to do nothing more than perpetuate this self indulgent superiority complex. As of late it’s been masquerading as patriotism (and yes, it’s always us Americans) but what is being spread by these chain-letter emails is really nothing more than thinly veiled intolerance –intolerance of foreign cultures and intolerance of foreign people. I think it’s about time that we start considering the well-being of others before America becomes nothing more than a nation of assholes.

Now I realize that all of this is merely my own personal opinion. I also realize that people reading this blog may not agree with me … and that’s fine. If you’d like to add a different perspective, please feel free to post a comment – I completely understand that there are always several ways to look at any issue and perhaps I am the ignorant one here. If that is the case, I would be eager to learn. Perhaps I should start thinking of myself as the most important person in the world… Would becoming an asshole myself somehow make dealing with other assholes easier? I doubt it…

bis später,

Coriolis

The End is Near

Well, as the saying goes, “All good things come to an end.” It appears that this cliché will be ringing true for my income over here in Germany a bit sooner than I was hoping; but that’s life, I guess… I was actually hoping to be able to continue working until the end of June (this was the initial stop date on my contract renewal); however, due to lack of clearance to work with the latest and greatest (and still pretty much top-secret) technology here, it looks like I’ll be heading back home a bit earlier than expected (most likely in the next couple of months).

To be honest, I’m actually not that upset about this development. Eight months of living in a country where the language barrier makes any attempt at self expression a completely futile effort is, in my opinion, at least six months too long (and yes, I am completely aware that not learning the language is nobody’s fault but my own; however Deutsch just doesn’t seem like a language that my mind is able to easily embrace). The money I was earning pretty much more than cancelled out the frustrations; however, once the income stops, I’ll be eager to get back to my “real” life…

I am hoping to head back to Amsterdam for my last hurrah on what has most definitely been the most interesting and surprisingly educational trip of my life thus far; however I have decided that I’m not going to take this trip alone. Although the five previous lone ventures to Amsterdam (well, I headed out with Jon and Cindy on trip #1 but returned alone) where all very interesting, I’ve already done that. I think that the money I would save by not doing it again may prove to be very beneficial on the resumption of my life back in the states – I will, once again, be unemployed when I return home. My buddy Joe, as it turns out, has expressed what I believe to be a sincere interest in flying over here and joining me on my farewell venture. If we can get all the arrangements in order for this trip (I will be calling Joe to speak with him about this over the weekend – assuming he ever actually answers his phone…), I most definitely will go. I believe the cost for that trip would absolutely be worth it. I figure that this may be the best opportunity for this as I am living in Germany and who knows if I will ever be returning…? (It’s possible though – this current trip wasn’t even a consideration prior to a month before I left. Life, you see, is funny that way at times…)

For yet one more interesting twist on what was a rather spontaneous trip to begin with, I’m actually considering (and currently looking into) heading back to the states via boat – not an actual cruise ship, mind you, but by cargo ship. I’ve found a company (the PZM Polish Steamship Company) that offers passenger service (for up to six passengers) on their 656 foot “I” class cargo ships from Amsterdam (which, of course, would make one more trip to Amsterdam necessary whether Joe can make it or not) to the Great Lakes via St. Lawrence Seaway – with Cleveland as a final destination – for about the same cost as a one-way flight. It would lengthen the approximate 10 hour flight to a 24-25 day cruise; but, since there’s really nothing requiring my immediate attention in my life, I’m actually considering it. It might make for an interesting experience and, after all, shouldn’t we strive to include as many interesting experiences as we can in our pathetically short lives?

I don’t know … maybe this is just one more sign that I may actually be loosing my firm grasp of sanity that I’ve always considered myself to have (well, minus the short departure back in ’87); although lately I’ve actually been wondering if sanity is all that it’s cracked up to be. Perhaps a bit of insanity is what my life needs right about now. I could always justify it as an opportunity to “think outside the box” and, from what I’ve experienced, thinking outside the box is often looked upon as a good character trait…

However I decide to travel, I will be doing it rather soon and it’s somewhat reassuring to finally be able to see the light at the end of this tunnel. Let’s just hope that the light I am seeing isn’t the front of an oncoming train. I’ve been hit before (haven’t we all?) and I’m beginning to wonder if I’d be able to survive the impact…

bis später,

Coriolis

Poker 101 - Final Thoughts

Hi people! The poker thing … let me apologize for that. I realize that many of my readers are most likely not that interested in reading poker strategies and discussions about probability and such … so… I’m going to end that here. If you’re interested in looking into this issue some more, might I suggest picking up a book (I highly recommend David Sklansky’s The Theory of Poker) or checking around a bit more on the web (hell, there are probably a few links to some sites in the ads section of this blog…) – seems like everyone who thinks they know how to beat the game (myself included) is eager to explain their system to you. Remember this, however, there really is no all-encompassing system to beating the game – it always comes down to doing the correct thing at the correct time and I honestly believe that no system exists capable of covering the almost countless situations that poker has to offer.

Since I have mentioned a few things that I said I would cover further in later posts, I will now expand on those subjects. Unless requested otherwise, however, this will be my final post about playing poker. I just think that this material – although possibly interesting to a few – is a bit too dry and boring for the non poker players out there. Okay, so here are the further explanations promised…

I mentioned pre-flop betting strategies back in my Hand Odds post. This is an important topic that any newcomer to the game most definitely needs to understand. I think the reasoning for the strangeness that you often see people doing on their pre-flop bets is a direct result from watching too much poker on TV. The thing that one needs to keep in mind whilst watching these broadcast events is that you never see the entire match. The World Poker Tour broadcasts seem to be the closest to showing all of the action; however the observant viewer will notice at times that the placement of the button has a tendency to skip people. Whenever you see this, hands have been played that were not shown. You also need to remember that you are only watching the final table of a multi-day tournament.

The result of all this is that the game shown ends up being nothing more than highlights and you can bet that the highlights contain a lot of hands where somebody messed up. Do not fall into the trap of thinking that you should play like the professionals on TV from watching their play. You very well might be watching one of the few times that the professional in question made a mistake. Although tournaments often end with some very interesting (sometimes controversial) plays, remember that it was the grinding done to reach the final table that even made it possible for these guys to make these plays. Unless you’re watching the tournament live and in person, you will not be privy to the hours and hours of grinding that took place prior to that final table.

Please remember this – just because you are holding a couple very good hole cards (up to and including the pair of bullets), your hand still needs three more cards to even be considered a valid poker hand. Try not to get into a situation where you actually go all-in (and somebody with a larger chip stack can call you) prior to the flop – it very well could be the last decision you make in that game. Your bullets do you no good if the person that calls your all-in bet is able to get a better hand by the river. If you’re interested in watching exactly what I am talking about, go ahead and sit down at one of those ten person, play money, sit and go tournaments. You will quickly notice something interesting – usually several people will go all-in on the first hand (it seems to average out to about three). This, of course, is horrible play. Pay attention to what happens and you will quickly see that the strongest hand going into these confrontations is often bested by a draw. The result of this is that usually one player becomes huge (chip stack wise) and a few people get knocked out. I like to refer to this as the “go big or go home” strategy. It’s intriguing enough for many to try it on a play money table since, in that incarnation, the game becomes nothing more than a game – you have nothing of actual value riding on it. In an actual money game, however, it should be obvious that this play is at best too high risk to justify.

The correct way to play your pre-flop betting is to use it as a type of control. For instance, if you’re holding the bullets, you want to get the biggest return on any money that you invest in the pot (this is actually the way you need to look at every hand you play). Use all of the information that you’ve gathered from your play up to this point and bet the appropriate amount (or call or raise – depending on the situation). Since you know that your hand is currently the best and also understand that this situation could very well change after any callers get to see the flop, you want to try to minimize the number of people that actually play against you. You need to look at the remaining chip stack of your possible opponents as well as refer to mental notes taken on opponent’s play and bet enough so that only one or two people will even call you. If one of these remaining players decides to raise you, then you have a great opportunity to play off his action and perhaps get it down to an all-in between you and him. I’ll take bullets heads-up any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Sure, you won’t be knocking out several people in one hand; however you have successfully minimized the probability that you will be getting knocked out.

What really needs to be remembered in any pre-flop action (well, any action actually … I’m just discussing pre-flop for now) is that action has multiple consequences. As I somewhat explained in my Action post, any action performed is a representation of your hole cards. You can use this to get the weaker hands to fold. The much more obvious result of a bet is that it increases the size of the pot and this is also a much wanted circumstance when you’re holding a winning hand at the river. The latter aspect is far more usable on post-flop bets and really shouldn’t be weighted highly on any pre-flop betting. You need to be able to use the pre-flop bet as a way to control the game – if you do this right, you should have very little difficulty in forcing the other players to play the game exactly how you want it played and there’s nothing better than that.

This brings us to “table image”. I mentioned several times that you need to be keeping mental notes on the action (and results there-of) of your opponents. You also need to be paying special attention to the results that have occurred from all of your action – you can rest assured that any decent opponent is paying attention to this… This is referred to as your “table image” and it has a tendency to change rather quickly at times. The main thing to remember when considering your table image is that your opponents will be much more likely to either call or raise your bets when your table image is weak (by “weak” I am referring to your appeared competence). On the flip side, of course, you are going to have a much harder time getting opponents to invest more money into a pot when your table image is strong.

Many players will purposely play around with their table image in an effort to lower it. They’ll purposely do what appear to be bone-headed plays in order to actually lose hands. Personally, I think that play like this is dangerous – for one thing, you need to make sure that the pot that you lose on your intentional bone-headed play is small enough to not cause issues with your chip stack and you have to hope that the opponents that you are playing understand table image well enough for your play to be advantageous for you. Since you are going to lose hands even when you play perfectly (remember, it’s a game of probabilities), I think losing any hand on purpose is a bad thing. Always, however, be aware of the strength of your table image and use this information when deciding how to play your action. You can actually make some of those “bad-luck streaks” work to your advantage…

Slow play. Okay, the first thing I want to mention about “slow play” is that it has absolutely nothing to do with the speed of your play! If you think that pausing for an abnormal amount of time prior to acting is slow playing, you really shouldn’t be playing this game. Sure, the drawn-out pauses can be advantageous at times (a way to play with your hand strength appearance), however this is not slow playing your hand. A “slow play” is actually a play done over multiple bets (which also means multiple board cards being displayed). The idea is to attempt to get opponents to initiate bets when you are holding a strong hand (a side-effect is that you are actually hiding the strength of your hand). This can often times increase the size of pots that you win although it usually also increases the chances of your strong hand getting out-drawn. It’s amazing how often a slow play can be shown as the mistake made in one of those bad beat stories that everyone seems so eager to share.

As a simple example of the dangers of slow playing, let’s assume that you were dealt a pair of kings. Nobody raises the bet pre-flop and you decide to “slow play” the kings and just limp in. The flop hits and the highest card is a queen (we’ll assume something like a queen, a nine and a five). You’re holding an over-pair and get a bit cocky – you check your kings and continue your slow play. The player on the button bets the pot and you make the mistake of only calling (bear in mind that you are actually slow playing your kings here for the third time – you’d probably be better off just betting the other guy out and taking the pot but greed has gotten the better of you and you continue your slow play in an effort to make the pot larger). The turn hits and it’s an ace. Oh no, now what do you do? The ace frightens you a bit, so you decide to check it to the raiser who rather quickly goes all-in. Is he crazy enough to semi-bluff an all-in with a pair of queens after an ace hit? Is it possible that he was pulling a semi-bluff with his pot-sized bet after the flop and was actually holding something like an ace-five? The thing here is that you don’t know. All you know now is that he’s willing to risk it all with his hand and that turn has severely weakened your hand. You’re faced with a very difficult decision and have nobody to blame but yourself. If you didn’t slow play your kings, you most likely would have taken the pot…

Back in the Pot Odds post, I briefly mentioned what I consider to be the most misunderstood aspect of poker – the bluff. Why I believe the bluff (and its lesser known sibling – the semi-bluff) is the most misunderstood aspect of poker is the importance that it appears to have to the non-player. I understand how somebody unfamiliar with the game can over-rate the importance of a bluff; however, in the actual game, a bluff needs to be thought of as what it actually is – a desperation play. Let me explain what I am trying to say here…

Everybody knows what a bluff is – it’s a stronger bet than your hand calls for. It’s usually a bet that’s large enough to get no callers but small enough to limit the damage that would be caused if somebody did call (I say “usually” here because, with the way some people play, it could be their elimination if called). The reason that I call it a desperation play is because you are going to – most likely – lose the bet if anyone calls. I think you can easily understand that you don’t want to be attempting this too often as, sooner or later, somebody will call your bluff.

The semi-bluff, on the other hand, is actually much stronger than your stone cold bluff. A semi-bluff is an over-bet of your hand strength in an effort to represent a stronger hand (same as the stone cold bluff); however with a semi-bluff you are already holding a hand that you feel may or may not be the best or there is some chance of making a strong hand with cards still to come. An over-bet on a draw is a semi-bluff as well as a large bet on a pair with over cards on the board. Keep in mind, however, when pulling off a semi-bluff the object is to get no callers. The great thing about the semi-bluff is that, even if you are unfortunate enough to get a caller, you might actually hit your draw making the unwanted call a good thing.

I think the last topic that I said I would expand on was from the Hand Strength post – implied odds. Implied odds are just that – pot odds based not only on what the current pot is but on what the pot can become during future betting. My advice to you on pot odds is to use them sparingly. Since you will be performing actions based on a possible pot size, you are actually complicating the game a bit too much. Not to mention that, if you are involved in a no-limit game, the implied pot odds pretty much make playing any draw seem like the right play – after all, the implied pot odds include the entire stack of your opponent. Your better off playing the pots as they stand rather than trying to predict the future although you should keep the implied pot odds in mind – they can often support a semi-bluff situation…

This basically completes my Poker 101 training. As stated above, I think I need to get back to writing articles that might be more enjoyable to a larger audience as that was the main purpose for starting this blog to begin with. If you came here looking for the poker information, that’s great! You might consider checking out some of the earlier postings as well – I think there’s some very interesting stuff in there…

bis später,

Coriolis

Poker 101 - Action

Okay, so we’ve discussed the basics with Hand Odds, Pot Odds and Hand Strength. You should now be able to see that poker is no more than a series of probabilities playing themselves out and the topics that I covered basically give you a good toolset to use. Unfortunately, however, if you attempt to play the game by only using this toolset you will not be able to compete with the more experienced players that also understand these principles but have a huge advantage – experience.

I cannot stress strongly enough the importance of experience when it comes to learning not only how to play the game, but how to win at it. “It takes a minute to learn and a lifetime to master.” We’ve all heard that quote and there’s really no better way to put it. You can study the various playing methods, tricks and techniques for as long as you want however, once you take a seat at the table, you will quickly discover that – although poker is the game being played – the actual “game” of poker often becomes merely an activity going on in the background. The real game is the interactions between the players – the “action”.

If you don’t believe me on this subject, here’s something I want you to do – the next time you’re sitting in on a Texas Holdem game see if you can take a pot without even looking at your hole cards. This is something that I will do time and again (not often, mind you … it is NOT a strong play) just for the confidence that a move like this can give you. It’s even better when the last guy folds and is stupid enough to show you that he was holding some sort of made hand that you were able to get him to lay down. If this happens, you can then make it known that you never even looked at your cards (if you want to play a bit with your table image) and rake in the pot. Not only have you boosted your confidence but you may have put the guy that folded on tilt. Now don’t read that the wrong way – as I said, play like this is not strong. You really need to understand the situation and make sure that you keep these plays to once in a blue moon. The adrenaline shot it gives you is sometimes worth the risk…

But we’re not going to discuss silly (and often dangerous) plays today; we’re going to talk a bit about action. When you hit your set of ducks (ducks, of course, are deuces) on the river, the player to your right bets the pot (In a no limit – or pot limit – game, a pot-sized bet is rather common. It’s a strong bet that usually represents a made hand but is also a strong bet as a bluff.) and the action then comes to you, how do you play your set?

The answer to this question is “insufficient information”. The only thing that I’ve told you is that you hit your set of ducks on the river. I never mentioned the other cards on the board, how many deuces you were holding in your hole cards, the actual size of the pot versus the size of your chip stack nor any previous action that occurred to bring you to hitting the set on the river. All of these aspects need to be considered before you jump to any conclusions about how strong your very small set actually is. Let’s look at these various facets one by one…

First, there are the other cards on the board. Are there any pairs on the board? Let’s assume that there is one pair on the board – a pair of deuces (this, of course, means that your hole cards would be one deuce and one possible kicker). The other three cards on the board are an ace, a jack and a five. No more than two of the cards on the board share a suit. How strong is your set? If this were the case, I would re-raise the pot-sized bet. The odds are that the original better would call (he might even re-raise but that shouldn’t be of too much concern to you) because he’s probably holding either an ace or a jack (perhaps both) and he might find it hard to believe that you would “stay in” to the river playing what was merely a pair of deuces prior to the river. If he calls the raise then the hand ends. He would need to be holding either a pair of aces, jacks or fives; a deuce with an ace, jack or five as a kicker; or a deuce with either a queen or king as the kicker (assuming that your kicker is smaller and hasn’t been paired on the board) in order to take the pot – if he’s holding anything else, the pots yours.

If, however, the board had a pair other than the deuces; three or more cards of the same suit; or three cards that are missing a straight by one card (or even two cards) then the situation is quite different. Each of these situations is dangerous to you because each of these situations increases the number of hands that will easily beat your dinky little set. Depending on the size of the pot and the size of your chip stack (I’ll explain this later…), I would limit my options here to either a call or a fold. The odds are still pretty good that your hand is the best; however the chance of losing has increased enough to justify calling the pot and taking the smaller amount rather than attempting a “value raise” on a hand which may very well be a loser. This is often referred to as “cutting your loses” since you will lose the least by not putting any more money in the pot than necessary (and remember, you can always cut your loses to the highest extent by folding).

This hand is much stronger if you are actually holding a pair of ducks in your hole. Let’s assume that this is the case and your third deuce comes on the river (also, that this river is the only deuce on the board). This completely changes the situation where the board is showing a pair – rather than a danger to you, this pair becomes an advantage. Now if the remaining player is holding a card matching the pair on the board then he could be in some trouble. Unless he was able to pair his kicker as well, all he would be holding is a set. Granted his set would most definitely be better than your set of ducks; however you’re no longer holding a set of ducks – you’re holding a full house. Not only that, but it’s an extremely well disguised full house and you can use this hidden aspect to your advantage.

Okay, so that covers the board cards as well as your hole cards. The next thing to take into account is the size of the pot (which, in this case, is also the size of the bet you are being asked to call) versus the size of your chip stack. The thing to remember here is that you always want to make sure that you don’t let one instance of “bad luck” ruin you. Whether it means that a loss will require you to shell out more money in order to buy more chips or that a loss will decrease your chip stack enough to make continued existence in a tournament much more difficult, you want to avoid this. Always take this into account when deciding how to act on all of your action. Remember though that the size of your chip stack has absolutely no effect on the cards – they’re going to be what they’re going to be. Whether or not you chose to risk everything on a possibility is nobody’s decision but your own.

On the flip side, however, if your chip stack is large enough and losing the hand isn’t going to cause too much hardship; you should be more willing to make the call. You’re best play with a large enough chip stack is to always play the odds to your advantage. If you do this correctly, your chip stack will grow and the small losses you might take from a few unlucky situations will easily be recoverable by the multitude of times that you will win on the straight probabilities.

This now brings us to the main topic of this post – the action. What I am referring to here is exactly what had transpired to bring you to the point where you hit your set of ducks on the river and got confronted with a pot-sized bet. Or, to be more precise, exactly who bet how much and when these bets were placed. Since my little example has you hitting a set of deuces on the river, it should be obvious that nobody was betting too much along the way – it wouldn’t behoove you to call any large bets whilst holding at best a pair of twos (there were, in the best case, at least two over-cards on the board right from the flop). No, the reason you got to hit your set on the river is because the other players did not play their hands correctly (or nobody else is holding anything). It’s also possible that somebody was slow-playing their hand (most likely the guy that bet the pot) although this is a pretty good example as to why slow-playing is dangerous. (I’ll cover slow-playing a bit more later…)

Any action that a player makes is a representation of the hole cards he is holding. And you need to remember this – it is only a representation. In reality, the cards that this player is actually holding could very well be something other than his action suggests; his representation, however, is still being made. Unfortunately there is no way to know whether he is actually playing his hand as it stands, playing some sort of draw or playing a bluff or semi-bluff. You can use information gathered in previous hands as a way to gauge the player’s honesty; but remember that even your constant bluffer gets a real hand at times. The key here is to pay attention to the representation and chose the correct action accordingly.

To better explain this, let us once again use the hand that I mentioned above. We’ll put you in position 3 on a five person, no-limit table. Position 1 posts the small blind (let’s say $500) and position 2 posts the big blind ($1000). The cards are dealt and you pick up a Brunson suited in spades (10-2 of spades). Since you’re currently sitting with a chip stack of a bit over $100k, you attempt to limp in with your rather weak hand and hope for the best. You call the $1000. Positions 4&5 also limp in; the small blind calls the $500 and the big blind checks.

Okay, so there is now $5000 in the pot and the flop gets dealt – 2 of hearts, J of spades and 5 of spades. Position 1 checks and position 2 bets half the pot ($2500). You quickly call the bet followed by a fold from position 4 and a raise of $5000 (a $7500 bet) by position 5. Position 1 folds and the action is then on you. You’ve got a pair of ducks which loses to position 5 if he is holding either a J or a 5. You’re also holding a four-card flush and we know the hand odds for this hand to be about 1/3 with two cards to come. For a $15000 payout on a $7500 bet (2 to 1 pot odds), this call is not easily justifiable (even considering that you can add 2 to the number of outs as not only will any of the nine remaining spades help you but you also make a pretty strong hand with either of the two remaining deuces). You reluctantly call the $5000 knowing that position 5 loves to bluff.

It now becomes a heads-up battle between you and position 5 and there is $22500 in the pot. The turn is shown and it’s the A of diamonds. This doesn’t make you happy, but you are first to act. You decide to bet $4500 (1/5 of the pot) on your slightly better than 1/5 hand odds.

Since I am making this story up, I think this is where I am going to let position 5 make his mistake. Position 5 is holding the A of spades and J of diamonds – he hit top two pair on the turn and is considering slow-playing them. He notices from your action that it appears you might be playing a flush draw and decides to just call and take the 4/5 odds that no spade will hit on the river. It is his intention to make a play for the pot only after the spade doesn’t hit. He also realizes that by merely calling he is hiding the strength of his hand which will make you more likely to call his bet on the river. This of course is unfortunate for him as he could have easily raked in the $27000 pot by placing a value raise. I don’t think that you would be too willing to call much of a raise with your itty bitty pair and flush draw… Position 5 calls bringing the pot up to $31500.

The 2 of diamonds hits on the river. You missed your flush however you’re now sitting with a set of ducks. Since position 5 didn’t raise on the turn, you begin to wonder what he might be holding. He didn’t raise however he did call your bet. Is it possible that he too was hoping to make the flush on the river? From his play it looks like he’s probably holding a J-something. He raised on the flop where the pair of Js would have been top-pair but didn’t raise the turn. This makes you think that the A may have scared him and conclude (wrongly) that he’s probably just holding a pair of Js (which also rules out the possibility of him looking for the flush on the river as the J of spades is on the board…). His ill-advised call on the turn has actually made you even more confident that your hand is the best so you decide to check and let position 5 try to steal the pot with his pair of Js.

This, of course, is exactly what position 5 was hoping for and he quickly makes a pot-sized bet of $31500. The action returns to you and – as described above – you call. You’re a bit surprised when position 5 shows you his top two pair but not nearly as surprised as he is on seeing your set of ducks. You rake in the $94500 pot ($50000 of it profit).

Another interesting thing about this hand is that position 5 actually made his biggest mistake by limping in with the A-J pre-flop. This happens far too often and the only reason for it is pure greed. The correct play on a five handed game with an A-J pre-flop is to raise. I think you can easily see why this is as pretty much any raise pre-flop would have been very difficult for you to call with you pathetic little posh Brunson.

Now these silly little hand examples that I am coming up with are exactly that – silly little examples. Each new hand dealt has its own little intricacies that make it unique. What you want to be getting out of this is the concepts. Although the hands will vary, the concepts remain the same. If you keep all these concepts in mind as you gain experience, the experience gained will be that much richer (pun completely intended).

bis später,

Coriolis

Poker 101 - Hand Strength

Okay, so now that we’ve covered the mathematics behind coming up with Hand Odds and Pot Odds, it’s almost time to start discussing the more intricate details involved with playing Texas Holdem (well, poker in general, but the game that I will be limiting my discussion to is Texas Holdem). There is still one aspect that I believe I need to bring up as many people are apt to play poorly if they don’t completely understand the strength of their hand.

The great thing about poker is that, once you come to the show-down, the best hand will take the pot – not “usually” or “often times” but “always”. This is a great thing because the value of poker hands is clearly defined in the rules of the game. The first thing that a potential poker player needs to do is familiarize himself with this hand ranking well enough to be able to rattle it off without even having to pause to think. It needs to become second nature. This way you can concentrate on the actual play of the game rather than wasting valuable mental resources on trying to remember if a straight beats a flush (which, of course, it doesn’t) or whether your three pair will beat somebody else’s set (again, nope…). And yes, I do realize that three pair isn’t even a valid poker hand as all poker hands consist of only five cards; however, in Texas Holdem (or any game that results in giving more than five cards to make your hand from), you will often run into the three pair situation and unfamiliar players can actually get confused by this…

A couple situations come up regularly when playing poker – the straight vs. straight and flush vs. flush situations. For the straight vs. straight, the situation is easy to explain – the winning hand is the straight that tops out on the highest valued card. In other words, if you are holding a 2-3 (ignore suits for now) and a 4-5-6-8-A comes up on the board, you have a pretty decent hand (straight – 2 through 6); however, you are also holding a hand that is beat by anyone holding a mere 7 (straight – 4 through 8 beats straight – 2 through 6). Always pay attention to the board and at least be cognizant of the hands that will beat you. A good hand is no good if a better one is out there.

For the flush vs. flush, the situation can become a bit trickier for someone not in the know. When the inevitable occurs and a flush is played against another flush, the flush with the highest valued card wins (and that does not mean that only the highest value card is checked – all five of the cards in the flush are checked against each other). In any game that has a board shared by all players, the top cards of the flushes are often on the board. Just remember that the only thing distinguishing your hand from others is your hole cards. What this means is, if you’re holding the deuce of spades and four spades hit on the board, your hand is actually pretty weak – if anybody else is holding any spade at all, you’re little flush is beat. You need to always be aware of exactly how much strength your hand actually has – just because you were able to make a named hand doesn’t mean that it is the best.

Here’s a little example to better explain what I am trying to get at here… Let’s take that example I gave for Pot Odds and look at it from position 2’s point of view. Pre-flop he was dealt the “Holy Grail” of starting hands – the pair of bullets. He attempted a bit of a trap by limping in but nobody bit. You can rest assured that he would have re-raised if anybody had raised at this point; unfortunately for him, nobody raised. After the flop hit (Ah9s2h) position 2 felt really good about hitting his set and continued his trapping attempts (this time successfully) by checking the bet. Position 3 did exactly what position 2 was hoping and bet followed by calls from position 4 and you (you were on the button, remember?). Seeing that his trap actually caught a few, position 2 then raised (the often-spoken-about “check-raise”) in what is clearly a “value bet”. At this point in the hand, his set of aces is actually the nuts – no hand exists that will beat it and a “value bet” is the correct play here. His goal is to get as much money in the pot that he can and hope that everybody else is on a draw that misses (or hits with a hand weaker than his at the showdown). This is a good play here when you realize that any drawing hand has less than 50% probability of actually hitting and his hand is already made.

Unfortunately for position 2, he’s sitting at a limit table and is therefore only able to bet the maximum ($5). The reason that this is unfortunate is because, not only was his “value bet” of $5 good for him, it was also advantageous for you – it actually made your best play the raise as I described in the Pot Odds post. (note: This play was actually incorrect and I would suggest reading my comment on the Pot Odds post for the full explanation...) It’s the next thing that position 2 does that becomes open for debate – he re-raises your re-raise. Personally I would say that this is the correct play for the same reason that his check-raise was correct; however position 2 does actually have more information than before as you not only called his raise but actually re-raised. With the two hearts hitting on the flop, position 2 needs to understand that your re-raise is a pretty good sign that you might be holding a couple hearts in your hole. Either that or you may have hit a hand that you think is currently winning (say, for example, you’re holding A-9). Why I believe his re-raise is correct is exactly for that reason – if you’re holding the flush draw, position 2 is a 2 to 1 favorite (the flush has a 1/3 chance of hitting and a 2/3 chance of missing – you will miss the flush twice as often as you will hit it); and, if you made a hand, his set of aces already has you beat. As I said, I believe his re-raise was the correct thing to do.

At this point, the 5c is shown on the turn (the board is Ah9s2h5c). It’s become a heads-up hand between position 2 and yourself and you’re sitting on the button. Position 2 always acts first. Noticing that the turn was not a heart, position 2 then bets the maximum ($5 – limit table, as you will recall) as another value bet knowing full well that he is currently holding the nuts. You raised. Here’s where I believe the player in position 2 cost himself some money – rather than limiting his risk and calling (just in case you were playing the flush draw – which, by the way, your play would have shown…), he decided to raise. This, of course, was followed again by a raise from you and a call by position 2.

(note: Please see my comment on the Pot Odds post as to why position 2's decision to raise was the CORRECT decision! When I re-analyzed this hand, I discovered that his raise should have gotten you to fold!!! Bear that in mind when you read the rest of this...)

The king of hearts hits on the river and position 2 lets greed get the best of him and bets another $5 in what he’s hoping to be a value bet. Unfortunately for him, you raise. Position 2 now understands the situation and, rather than re-raising again, calls the extra $5 just to “see” your flush.

The interesting thing about this example hand is that it shows one of the often over-looked aspects of poker – just because you play your hand perfectly does not mean that you will always win! In that example, both yourself and the person sitting at position 2 played your hands correctly however, as luck would have it this time, position 2 lost. Remember, however, that the only reason that position 2 lost is because he got unlucky and a 1 in 5 chance hit (a heart came on the river). If there is even the possibility of a certain outcome occurring, this outcome will occur at the rate that the odds dictate. The best you can do is play the odds and protect your stack. Sometimes you’ll lose, but more often than not, you will win. (note: And amazingly enough, upon re-analysis of this hand, position 2 should have won... See my comment on the Pot Odds post...)

Another aspect of that hand that is rather interesting is exactly how you were able to win it. If that same hand were played on a no-limit table, I can pretty much guarantee that the pot would have been taken by the guy at position 2. Not because the no-limit aspect changes hand values or anything (believe me, it doesn’t); but more to the point that you most likely wouldn’t have been able to stay in the hand to even see that river hit. Let me explain…

The pre-flop betting would most likely not change. Position 2 was playing a trap and nobody bit – this tells me that, even in a no-limit game, the limp-ins would most likely just limp-in as well. What would change would be the post-flop bet. Position 2 would set trap #2 again and position 3 would oblige. Let’s assume that position 3 chooses to bet the $5 (as done in the limit game). Position 4 calls and you call (everything is identical to the limit hand thus far). Position 2 now springs his trap – this time, however, he can bet as much as he wants up to his entire chip stack.

Okay, so let’s look at this from his position. He’s holding a set of aces, there’s currently $25 in the pot and two hearts are shown on the board. Let’s assume that the guy sitting at position 2 has a good understanding of hand odds and pot odds so he bets a pot-sized raise ($25). As before we’ll say that position 3 calls him and position 4 folds. The action comes to you and you need to decide whether or not to call this $20 raise (you’re already in for the initial $5). Since you’re getting good at figuring these situations out, you quickly compute that the pot odds are currently paying $75 on a $20 call (3.75 to 1) and that your hand odds are 1/3. You make the call and hope to see a heart…

(note: Making this call was actually a mistake as you are being asked to bet $25 at a chance to win $70 which is less than a 3 to 1 payout; however let's assume that you were a gambler and made the call anyway...)

You should already notice a difference between the limit and no-limit versions of this hand – the larger raise by position 2 has made it so that only a call is justifiable (note: Making this call was NOT justifiable as explained above...) by you whereas a raise was the optimal play in the limit game (note: We now know this to be incorrect as well...). Some may argue here that a call or raise is still justifiable based on implied pot odds however I don’t put much faith in implied pot odds – there are too many other factors that can make playing with implied pot odds risky. (Side note: Implied pot odds are pot odds computed from the size that the pot can become on future bets … I’ll get into that more in the future…)

The turn hits as it did in the limit version. There’s $95 in the pot and that’s exactly what position 2 bets – $95. Position 3 folds as before and the action is once again on you. Since you didn’t hit your flush on the turn (lowering your odds of making the flush to 1/5) and since the pot odds are not worth it ($190 payout for a $95 bet or 2 to 1), you fold. Interesting… But I digress – this post is about hand strength. I’ll cover betting structures a bit later…

The thing to remember here is that you need to constantly be considering the hole cards of your opponents. If, in the latter version of the above example, the guy in position 2 fell prey to his own greed and attempted to extract more money out of you by playing smaller bets (say he bet $25 instead of the $95) then he very likely would have lost that hand ($120 return on a $25 call is approximately a 5 to 1 return and you very well may have called that…). Luckily for him he understood the situation and saw the two hearts on the board.

One last thing that I want to mention about hand strength is a particular situation that often occurs in Texas Holdem. The situation that I refer to here is a board showing a pair. This can be a very dangerous thing to see if you filled either your straight or flush on the river as there needs to be a pair on the board in order for anyone to be able to get a full house or quads. Just keep this in mind before you haphazardly go all-in with your ace-high flush only to forfeit the pot to a boat (full house). (Of course the flip-side to this is that, as long as there is no pair on the board, your straight – or flush – won’t be losing to anybody’s boat or quads.)

bis später,

Coriolis

Poker 101 - Pot Odds

Okay, now that everybody has read the Hand Odds article and can quickly come up with usable hand odds it’s time to explain exactly why you would want to do this. It’s obvious that knowing the probability of making a hand is useful for deciding hand strength (a topic that I plan on discussing in more detail at a later date); the great thing about it is that you can actually use those hand odds in conjunction with pot odds to arrange it so that – at least over extended time periods – you can guarantee a positive return for your investments. And remember that … you need to look at any money that you put in the pot as an “investment”. Nobody ever wants to invest money in an “opportunity” that will not pay off so why would you do that whilst playing poker? You most definitely shouldn’t (there’s always the exception of the bluff and semi-bluff, but those are some more advanced topics that I will be covering later) and, if you correctly utilize the pot odds vs. hand odds technique that I describe below, you won’t.

To better explain this concept, let us discuss a hypothetical. Let’s say that you run into somebody that wants to do a bit of gambling but wants to keep it extremely simple – he offers to pay you $5 if you risk $1 on a roll of one die. All you need to do is pick the number that the die (a typical 6-sided die) will land on – if you’re correct, he pays you $5; if you’re wrong, he keeps your $1 bet. Do you take the bet?

Since the payout (the pot odds) is only 5 to 1 on your bet and the probability of you picking the right number and winning (the hand odds) is only a 1 in 6, it should be rather obvious that you should choose not to play with this guy. Consider if you chose to take him up on his bet and rolled the die 120 times. You have a 1 in 6 chance of picking the correct number on each roll of the die which means that you can expect to win the bet 20 times (1/6 of 120). Of course what that means is that you can expect to “win” $100 (20x$5) but would have paid $120 (120x$1) for this prize – a net loss of $20.

By using hand odds vs. pot odds it’s easy to see that, before rolling dice with this guy, he needs to agree to pay at least $6 if you win. That would be “even odds” (pot odds would be 6 to 1 and the hand odds would be 1/6). You actually shouldn’t take this bet either as the return on your investment in this situation is going to average out to a net gain of zero. You’ll pay $120 for 120 rolls and should win the bet 20 times resulting in a positive winning of $120 – all you’ve managed to do is come out even… If you decide to play with the even odds situation, the only thing that is going to decide whether or not you come out ahead is the noise fluctuation on the probability – often referred to as “luck”. You see, that’s all luck is – the mathematical noise seen in probabilities run on limited sample sizes. If you ever decide to take a bet with even odds, you’re basically betting on the mathematical noise and this is always unknowable. You would be counting on luck and luck is something that you should never count on…

To complete the above example, let’s say this guy agrees to pay $7 on a correct guess and a roll still only costs $1. Since the pot odds have now become 7 to 1 and the hand odds haven’t changed (1/6), this is the game you want. 120 rolls will still cost you $120; however the 20 times that you will win will bring in $140 – a net gain of $20. The object here is to make sure that the payout justifies the bet.

Now finding somebody willing to pay you more than $6 for the correct guess of a die roll is not an easy thing to do. This whole concept of pot odds vs. bet odds is actually very easy to understand in a one die roll situation and finding a person that doesn’t understand this would be difficult. In poker, however, many other variables exist (unknowns, machismo, greed…) and it is often amazing how often you can find people willing to take these unfair bets. Pay attention and use this to your advantage.

To illustrate my point, let’s now look at a poker situation. Let’s say you’re holding a ten of hearts and a jack of hearts at a $2/$5 limit Texas Holdem table. There are five people sitting at the table and you are on the button. The first two have limped in and you decide just to call the $2. The small blind calls and the big blind checks. The flop is shown and it is an ace of hearts, a nine of spades and a deuce of hearts. Positions 1 and 2 check, position 3 bets $5 and position 4 calls. Do you call the $5 and stay in the hand?

Let’s analyze the situation. You’re currently holding nothing – an ace high with kickers of jack, ten, nine and two. Of course everybody has at least an ace high making your hand a loser if anybody holds merely a king or queen; however, you are holding a four-card flush. Now, since you are able to calculate your hand odds at making the flush to be about 1/3 on the next two cards (I explained this same situation in my Hand Odds post) it’s time to calculate the pot odds and see if this call is justifiable – there is currently $20 in the pot (and two players – the initial checks – left to act) making the pot odds at least 4 to 1. Since the pot odds are slightly better than the hand odds, you decide to call the $5 bet.

Position 1 folds and position 2 raises to $10 (a check-raise – usually a sign of some sort of “made” hand). Position 3 calls and position 4 folds. The action is now on you and you need to call the $5 raise in order to stay in the hand. What do you do here?

Okay, since the hand hasn’t changed your hand odds are the same (1/3). The pot, on the other hand, has changed – there is now $40 in the pot. The pot odds have rather interestingly increased to 8 to 1 for your $5 call. Since your hand odds are still 1/3 you see that this might be a good place to raise. Because you’re sitting at a limit game, the most you can raise is $5 which would then pull the pot odds down to 4 to 1 on your $10 bet. A 4 to 1 payout is justifiable for your hand (remember, your hand odds are still 1/3) so the correct play here is actually to raise. You raise. (note: You just made a mistake - please read my added comment at the end of this post!!!)

Position 2, the original check-bet then re-raises. Position 3 folds and the action is once again on you. Okay, so position 2 is representing a decent hand. I would guess that he’s holding at least an ace. Of course, for us this is good information – a flush beats whatever his “made” hand is. There’s always the possibility that he’s playing the same draw that you are but that’s more of a topic for hand strength that I will be covering later. Currently you are being asked to act on position 2’s raise. Now, being that this is a limit game and pre-river raises are usually limited to three per round, your options are only to call or fold. Your hand is the same (a 1/3 probability flush draw) and the pot has grown to $60 making your pot odds an amazing 12 to 1. You call the $5.

The turn then gets dealt and it’s the five of clubs. Position 2 bets the maximum of $5. Well, the five of clubs was no help to you – you still don’t have a made hand and your hand odds have now dropped to 1/5 for making the flush on the river. How do you play this bet? The pot is now $70 making your pot odds 14 to 1 on a $5 call. It also makes your pot odds 7 to 1 if you decided to raise which is still justifiable. You raise the bet and put $10 in the pot.

Position 2 quickly re-raises your raise and the action returns to you. There’s now $90 in the pot – an 18 to 1 pot odds for a $5 call or a 9 to 1 pot odds if you were to raise. You raise with your 1/5 hand odds. Position 2 calls.

The river is dealt and it’s the king of hearts. The pot has $105 in it and you’re holding the second nut (a queen of hearts with any other heart beats you, but that’s it). Position 2 bets $5 and the action is now on you. You made your hand and position 2 has been representing a made hand from the flop – of course any hand that was made on the flop is a loser to your hand now. You raise the bet to $10. Position 2 calls (he sees the three hearts on the board and realizes that he might be beat) and shows his hole cards – a pair of aces. You display your hole cards and rake in the $125.

Now an interesting aspect of the above example hand is seen by taking a more high-level view of exactly what happened there. Bottom line on that hand is that you won a $125 pot by risking $50 of your money. You also did this by playing a hand with 1/3 odds of improving after the flop. You got a 2.5 to 1 payout with a 1/3 probability which, statistically speaking, is a bad play. The thing to remember is that you got this win by correctly playing the hand odds vs. pot odds on all of your action. (note: That last statement is WRONG! Please read my added comment at the end of this post!!!) There are several other aspects that would have changed your play and I will be covering these in later articles. For now, however, I just want you to understand hand odds vs. pot odds and I believe that this example hand is a good study.

There’s really nothing better than experience for learning how to win at poker; however, if the time is taken to understand your hand odds vs. the pot odds, your experiences will have much more meaning to you. It’s one of the basic tools that a poker player needs to understand if he wants to become a winning poker player.

bis später,

Coriolis

Poker 101 - Hand Odds

Today I’m going to chat a bit about some of the intricacies of a very old game – life (oh wait, I mean poker … they’re just so closely related that it gets confusing at times…). Poker, as I am sure you have noticed, has recently made a huge come-back in the last decade or so and, for many (myself included), has actually turned into a favorite pastime. The best part about all this is what has resulted – the waters are teeming with fish. If you take the time to hone your poker playing skills a bit, finding meals has never been easier – you just need to remember to play the shark and not another fish…

I’ve met quite a few people recently that seem to be a bit too hesitant to even play the game. I understand why this is – there’s basically no quicker way to lose a whole lot of money in a very short period of time than sitting down at a no-limit Texas Holdem table; there’s also no quicker way to win a whole lot of money in a short period either… You just need to play smart. Hopefully after reading these little articles you will be able to use some of my advice to muster up enough courage to be able to give the game a try – who knows? … You might like it… I also think that these articles are must reads for many of the self-proclaimed sharks out there as it is always a good idea to step back for a bit and maybe look at the game from a different perspective. More often than not, I think, poker players have a really bad habit of getting stuck in a rut with their playing style – this, of course, leads to bad things … these are the guys that I target from the get-go. The worst thing that your game can become is predictable…

Like life, poker is nothing more than a series of decisions. All of these decisions need to be made in an effort to better one’s position. The great thing about poker is that the probabilities of these choices working for or against you are knowable. In fact, situations arise in poker where you can actually be holding an unbeatable hand (the “stone cold nuts”). There are only two occasions in a person’s life that are universal certainties – birth and death. Apart from those two bookends, everything else has either known or unknown probabilities for helping or hurting you. If the human nature aspect of poker were to be removed, the game is easily seen as nothing more than probabilities playing out. Therefore, the first thing you need to understand is what probabilities actually are…

We’ll start with something simple – a coin-toss. Assuming that the coin in question hasn’t been tampered with it’s pretty easy to understand that the outcome of the toss has equal probability of ending up heads or tails. Getting heads, on average, happens once in two tosses and tails happens the other time. Of course the funny thing about probabilities is that “on average” statement – this is often what leads intelligent people to make stupid decisions. This does not mean that if a coin-toss is done and heads comes up that the next coin-toss will inevitably be tails. In fact, the odds that the next toss will come up tails never changes – it’s always 50%.

Let’s take that simple example and head a bit into the unlikely. It is possible that a coin can be tossed ten times in a row resulting in heads – extremely unlikely (1 in 1024 or approximately 0.09%) but possible none-the-less. Does this change the fact that the odds of the next toss being heads (or tails, for that matter) are 50%? Nope – although it might seem like tails are due, there’s still only a 50% chance of seeing tails on the next toss. The reason that we are inclined to think that “tails are due” is actually just a byproduct of the rarity that we’ve already seen (remember the 0.09% probability). I mean if heads came up again, how unlikely would that be? Well, it would be a 1 in 2048 (about 0.05%) chance to flop heads eleven times in a row. The thing that needs to be remembered is that the odds of flopping heads ten times in a row followed by a toss of tails is also 1 in 2048. The odds are the same for either outcome. The point that I am illustrating here is very important – probabilities do not change due to previous attempts. The coin has absolutely no “memory” of past events and each toss plays as though it were the first…

Yeah, but that’s a coin-toss. Poker’s a much more complicated animal than a coin-toss, right? WRONG! Although the math can get a bit trickier, poker obeys the same rules of probability that a coin toss does – these probabilities are laws of nature. All you need to do is figure out what the probabilities are and use this information to make your decisions. The great thing about Texas Holdem is that figuring out what the actual probabilities are is very easy – all the math is done with whole numbers and you can do just fine with close approximations. This should become evident when I explain the rule of 4&2 a bit later…

Now I’m going to assume that I don’t have to explain how Texas Holdem is played – if you’re reading this posting I’m pretty sure that you’re familiar with the game mechanics. However, if you don’t know how the game is played, I would suggest reviewing the rules (there are many web pages that you can get the rules from) before continuing on as the mechanics of the game must be understood to get anything valuable from what I am sharing. Go ahead … I’ll still be here when you return…

Okay, so now that everybody understands the mechanics of the game I’ll tell you how to win at it. Simply put, all you need to do is lose as little as you can with losing hands and win as much as you can with winners. That’s all there is to it – it’s not rocket science. The key thing is to remember that you are going to lose hands – probability just works that way. Even if the probability of losing a bet is 1 in 100, that bet will be lost 1% of the time (on average). You need to realize this. You will lose that bet 1% of the time (again, on average). You will also win that bet 99% of the time (okay, on average again – I think you get the picture so I’m going to stop reminding about the “on average” thing…). The question then becomes, “Okay, so is there any way to know whether, on any particular instance, it’s going to be a 1%er or a 99%er?” The answer to this, of course, is no. You won’t find that out until after the transaction has occurred. There is, however, something that you have complete control over that can make it so that this bet is always to your advantage – the stakes.

Now the funny thing about poker is that the odds are rarely 1 in 100. This does happen at times, but if you’re still in a hand when you discover that you only have a 1% chance of taking the pot, you did something wrong. To demonstrate this point, let’s quickly go over the procedure for figuring out your percentages at making a hand. It involves math, but don’t let that bother you – as I said, the math is very simple. On the deal, you get your hole cards. Funny thing is that this is where a lot of the newcomers to the game screw up. Regardless of how wonderful those two cards may look to you, you still need three more cards to make your hand. Not only that, but the next five cards that you get will be playable by anyone still in the hand – not just you. Remember that – one man’s garbage is often another man’s treasure. At this point, it’s extremely difficult to actually compute the odds for the plethora of hands that your two hole cards can turn into and this calculation would end up being meaningless. The time for figuring out your probability comes after you see the flop. I’ll speak a bit on pre-flop betting strategies a bit later; for now let’s talk about hand probabilities.

So you’ve called the pre-flop bet and the flop is shown. This is where the actual play begins. What you need to quickly do now is look at your hand and see what you have. Let’s use a common occurrence and say that you have either an open ended straight draw or a four-card flush. What are the odds that you will make that hand? I’ll tell you right now that the odds of making the hand on the next card are approximately 1 in 5 and making the hand with the next two cards are 1 in 3. Also, if you miss your hand on the turn, the odds for hitting on the river will be 1 in 5. How did I get these odds? It’s all about “outs”.

If you’re holding a four-card flush on the flop, there are exactly 9 cards that can hit to make your hand (if it’s an open-ended straight draw, there are 8). These are the numbers that you need to know and they will become easy enough to get with a bit of experience. (The 9 cards are the 13 cards of that suit minus the four you are holding and the 8 cards are the 4 suits of the 2 cards that would complete your open-ended straight.) Okay, so you’ve figured out the number of “outs” that you have; now you need to come up with the probability of one of these outs hitting. This is easily computed by realizing that a standard deck of cards consists of 52 cards. You are currently seeing 5 of these 52 cards (your two hole cards and the flop) which leaves 47 cards unknown. The odds of filling your flush on the next card are 8/47 or slightly less than 1/6 (for the open ended straight draw it’s 9/47 or slightly more than 1/5). Remember that approximations are good enough which makes a 1/5 probability for each case usable. The great thing is that, even if you don’t make your hand on the turn, the odds really don’t change for making the hand on the river. (Your 8/47 or 9/47 becomes 8/46 or 9/46 since the only thing that changed was that one more unknown was seen – once again, these simplify down to approximately 1/5 … pretty cool, huh?)

I also mentioned that the odds of hitting within the next two cards were 1/3. This is easily obtained by ORing the probabilities of hitting on either the turn OR river. Anyone who’s ever studied probabilities and statistics knows that an OR is easily computed by simply adding the probabilities of each outcome. In our example this would be 1/5 + 1/5 or 2/5. Keeping in mind that approximations are good enough and realizing that an increase by one to the denominator is actually being a bit on the cautious side (2/5 is more likely than 2/6), you can conclude that the probability of filling this hand on either the turn or river but staying to see both is 1/3. See how easy this is? The best part about all this is that you really don’t need to do that math. I illustrated this as a case in point to demonstrate that all you need to know in order to figure out your probabilities for filling hands is the number of “outs” available. Since many people seem to have some difficulty with fractional mathematics, you will be glad to hear that all of that can be avoided with the rule of 4&2 that I mentioned earlier. Now pay attention, things get easy at this point…

Okay, so let’s take our four-card flush and utilize the rule of 4&2 to come up with our odds. The simple trick here is all you need to do is multiply your number of outs by 4 to get an approximate estimation of hitting the hand on either the turn or river and multiplying the outs by 2 if you miss on the turn to figure out the odds of hitting on the river. It doesn’t get any easier than that. For the four-card flush remember that the number of outs was 9, right? Okay, so 9x4 is 36. That basically says that you have a 36% chance of filling the hand on either the turn or river – awfully close to the 1/3 (33%) chance calculated above. If you miss on the turn, you would then have a 9x2 or 18% chance of hitting on the river – a slightly pessimistic version of the 1/5 (20%) chance calculated above. Since approximations are good enough, this rule of 4&2 is usable. It just doesn’t get any easier than that…

Now you know how to very quickly calculate the probabilities for making hands. These tricks are known by pretty much all of the decent poker players out there and I’m sure that you can easily find this same information in pretty much any poker book or DVD out there; however this is only the beginning of my discussion on poker. I plan on covering many more of the not-so-widely-known intricacies in later posts so check back from time to time and see what I have to say. Who knows, you might find some of it rather interesting…

bis später,

Coriolis