Poker 101 - Hand Strength

Okay, so now that we’ve covered the mathematics behind coming up with Hand Odds and Pot Odds, it’s almost time to start discussing the more intricate details involved with playing Texas Holdem (well, poker in general, but the game that I will be limiting my discussion to is Texas Holdem). There is still one aspect that I believe I need to bring up as many people are apt to play poorly if they don’t completely understand the strength of their hand.

The great thing about poker is that, once you come to the show-down, the best hand will take the pot – not “usually” or “often times” but “always”. This is a great thing because the value of poker hands is clearly defined in the rules of the game. The first thing that a potential poker player needs to do is familiarize himself with this hand ranking well enough to be able to rattle it off without even having to pause to think. It needs to become second nature. This way you can concentrate on the actual play of the game rather than wasting valuable mental resources on trying to remember if a straight beats a flush (which, of course, it doesn’t) or whether your three pair will beat somebody else’s set (again, nope…). And yes, I do realize that three pair isn’t even a valid poker hand as all poker hands consist of only five cards; however, in Texas Holdem (or any game that results in giving more than five cards to make your hand from), you will often run into the three pair situation and unfamiliar players can actually get confused by this…

A couple situations come up regularly when playing poker – the straight vs. straight and flush vs. flush situations. For the straight vs. straight, the situation is easy to explain – the winning hand is the straight that tops out on the highest valued card. In other words, if you are holding a 2-3 (ignore suits for now) and a 4-5-6-8-A comes up on the board, you have a pretty decent hand (straight – 2 through 6); however, you are also holding a hand that is beat by anyone holding a mere 7 (straight – 4 through 8 beats straight – 2 through 6). Always pay attention to the board and at least be cognizant of the hands that will beat you. A good hand is no good if a better one is out there.

For the flush vs. flush, the situation can become a bit trickier for someone not in the know. When the inevitable occurs and a flush is played against another flush, the flush with the highest valued card wins (and that does not mean that only the highest value card is checked – all five of the cards in the flush are checked against each other). In any game that has a board shared by all players, the top cards of the flushes are often on the board. Just remember that the only thing distinguishing your hand from others is your hole cards. What this means is, if you’re holding the deuce of spades and four spades hit on the board, your hand is actually pretty weak – if anybody else is holding any spade at all, you’re little flush is beat. You need to always be aware of exactly how much strength your hand actually has – just because you were able to make a named hand doesn’t mean that it is the best.

Here’s a little example to better explain what I am trying to get at here… Let’s take that example I gave for Pot Odds and look at it from position 2’s point of view. Pre-flop he was dealt the “Holy Grail” of starting hands – the pair of bullets. He attempted a bit of a trap by limping in but nobody bit. You can rest assured that he would have re-raised if anybody had raised at this point; unfortunately for him, nobody raised. After the flop hit (Ah9s2h) position 2 felt really good about hitting his set and continued his trapping attempts (this time successfully) by checking the bet. Position 3 did exactly what position 2 was hoping and bet followed by calls from position 4 and you (you were on the button, remember?). Seeing that his trap actually caught a few, position 2 then raised (the often-spoken-about “check-raise”) in what is clearly a “value bet”. At this point in the hand, his set of aces is actually the nuts – no hand exists that will beat it and a “value bet” is the correct play here. His goal is to get as much money in the pot that he can and hope that everybody else is on a draw that misses (or hits with a hand weaker than his at the showdown). This is a good play here when you realize that any drawing hand has less than 50% probability of actually hitting and his hand is already made.

Unfortunately for position 2, he’s sitting at a limit table and is therefore only able to bet the maximum ($5). The reason that this is unfortunate is because, not only was his “value bet” of $5 good for him, it was also advantageous for you – it actually made your best play the raise as I described in the Pot Odds post. (note: This play was actually incorrect and I would suggest reading my comment on the Pot Odds post for the full explanation...) It’s the next thing that position 2 does that becomes open for debate – he re-raises your re-raise. Personally I would say that this is the correct play for the same reason that his check-raise was correct; however position 2 does actually have more information than before as you not only called his raise but actually re-raised. With the two hearts hitting on the flop, position 2 needs to understand that your re-raise is a pretty good sign that you might be holding a couple hearts in your hole. Either that or you may have hit a hand that you think is currently winning (say, for example, you’re holding A-9). Why I believe his re-raise is correct is exactly for that reason – if you’re holding the flush draw, position 2 is a 2 to 1 favorite (the flush has a 1/3 chance of hitting and a 2/3 chance of missing – you will miss the flush twice as often as you will hit it); and, if you made a hand, his set of aces already has you beat. As I said, I believe his re-raise was the correct thing to do.

At this point, the 5c is shown on the turn (the board is Ah9s2h5c). It’s become a heads-up hand between position 2 and yourself and you’re sitting on the button. Position 2 always acts first. Noticing that the turn was not a heart, position 2 then bets the maximum ($5 – limit table, as you will recall) as another value bet knowing full well that he is currently holding the nuts. You raised. Here’s where I believe the player in position 2 cost himself some money – rather than limiting his risk and calling (just in case you were playing the flush draw – which, by the way, your play would have shown…), he decided to raise. This, of course, was followed again by a raise from you and a call by position 2.

(note: Please see my comment on the Pot Odds post as to why position 2's decision to raise was the CORRECT decision! When I re-analyzed this hand, I discovered that his raise should have gotten you to fold!!! Bear that in mind when you read the rest of this...)

The king of hearts hits on the river and position 2 lets greed get the best of him and bets another $5 in what he’s hoping to be a value bet. Unfortunately for him, you raise. Position 2 now understands the situation and, rather than re-raising again, calls the extra $5 just to “see” your flush.

The interesting thing about this example hand is that it shows one of the often over-looked aspects of poker – just because you play your hand perfectly does not mean that you will always win! In that example, both yourself and the person sitting at position 2 played your hands correctly however, as luck would have it this time, position 2 lost. Remember, however, that the only reason that position 2 lost is because he got unlucky and a 1 in 5 chance hit (a heart came on the river). If there is even the possibility of a certain outcome occurring, this outcome will occur at the rate that the odds dictate. The best you can do is play the odds and protect your stack. Sometimes you’ll lose, but more often than not, you will win. (note: And amazingly enough, upon re-analysis of this hand, position 2 should have won... See my comment on the Pot Odds post...)

Another aspect of that hand that is rather interesting is exactly how you were able to win it. If that same hand were played on a no-limit table, I can pretty much guarantee that the pot would have been taken by the guy at position 2. Not because the no-limit aspect changes hand values or anything (believe me, it doesn’t); but more to the point that you most likely wouldn’t have been able to stay in the hand to even see that river hit. Let me explain…

The pre-flop betting would most likely not change. Position 2 was playing a trap and nobody bit – this tells me that, even in a no-limit game, the limp-ins would most likely just limp-in as well. What would change would be the post-flop bet. Position 2 would set trap #2 again and position 3 would oblige. Let’s assume that position 3 chooses to bet the $5 (as done in the limit game). Position 4 calls and you call (everything is identical to the limit hand thus far). Position 2 now springs his trap – this time, however, he can bet as much as he wants up to his entire chip stack.

Okay, so let’s look at this from his position. He’s holding a set of aces, there’s currently $25 in the pot and two hearts are shown on the board. Let’s assume that the guy sitting at position 2 has a good understanding of hand odds and pot odds so he bets a pot-sized raise ($25). As before we’ll say that position 3 calls him and position 4 folds. The action comes to you and you need to decide whether or not to call this $20 raise (you’re already in for the initial $5). Since you’re getting good at figuring these situations out, you quickly compute that the pot odds are currently paying $75 on a $20 call (3.75 to 1) and that your hand odds are 1/3. You make the call and hope to see a heart…

(note: Making this call was actually a mistake as you are being asked to bet $25 at a chance to win $70 which is less than a 3 to 1 payout; however let's assume that you were a gambler and made the call anyway...)

You should already notice a difference between the limit and no-limit versions of this hand – the larger raise by position 2 has made it so that only a call is justifiable (note: Making this call was NOT justifiable as explained above...) by you whereas a raise was the optimal play in the limit game (note: We now know this to be incorrect as well...). Some may argue here that a call or raise is still justifiable based on implied pot odds however I don’t put much faith in implied pot odds – there are too many other factors that can make playing with implied pot odds risky. (Side note: Implied pot odds are pot odds computed from the size that the pot can become on future bets … I’ll get into that more in the future…)

The turn hits as it did in the limit version. There’s $95 in the pot and that’s exactly what position 2 bets – $95. Position 3 folds as before and the action is once again on you. Since you didn’t hit your flush on the turn (lowering your odds of making the flush to 1/5) and since the pot odds are not worth it ($190 payout for a $95 bet or 2 to 1), you fold. Interesting… But I digress – this post is about hand strength. I’ll cover betting structures a bit later…

The thing to remember here is that you need to constantly be considering the hole cards of your opponents. If, in the latter version of the above example, the guy in position 2 fell prey to his own greed and attempted to extract more money out of you by playing smaller bets (say he bet $25 instead of the $95) then he very likely would have lost that hand ($120 return on a $25 call is approximately a 5 to 1 return and you very well may have called that…). Luckily for him he understood the situation and saw the two hearts on the board.

One last thing that I want to mention about hand strength is a particular situation that often occurs in Texas Holdem. The situation that I refer to here is a board showing a pair. This can be a very dangerous thing to see if you filled either your straight or flush on the river as there needs to be a pair on the board in order for anyone to be able to get a full house or quads. Just keep this in mind before you haphazardly go all-in with your ace-high flush only to forfeit the pot to a boat (full house). (Of course the flip-side to this is that, as long as there is no pair on the board, your straight – or flush – won’t be losing to anybody’s boat or quads.)

bis später,

Coriolis